The U.S. Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?

نویسندگان

  • Vincenzo Galasso
  • Javier Dıaz Gimenez
  • Gary Hansen
  • Omar Licandro
چکیده

This paper examines how political constraints can shape the social security system under different demographics. A steady-state mapping between relevant economic and demographic variables and the social security tax rate resulting from a majority voting is provided. I calibrate an OLG model to the U.S. economy. Calculations using census population and survival probabilities projections and 1961]96 labor productivity growth deliver a social security tax rate of 13.3% Ž . Ž . currently 11.2% and a 54% replacement ratio 51.7% . This result reflects the median voter’s aging, from 44 to 46 years, which dominates the decrease in the dependency ratio, from 5.45 to 4.72. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, E17, D72. Q 1999 Academic Press

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تاریخ انتشار 1997